Industrial securities, former Chief Strategy analyst Zhang Yidong, Deputy Director of the Institute.
On February 21 this year, Societe Generale Securities Research Institute, Deputy Director, Chief policy analyst Zhang Yidong announced industrial securities seller policy team over to rookie Durham charge. Time, surprised the market.
Surging News (www.thepaper.CN) learned that app made by the same day, Zhang Yidong group known as "seller's policy work is fixed for a bit, letting young people rushed" and then the next day, media reports, by June 2015 a-share "earthquake" several times after "aftershocks" period, Zhang Yidong's view has been shaken by its location in the buyer's mind. 2015 "new wealth analyst at best" award, has previously won three policy set first Zhang Yidong took only fourth place.
From 2001 to present, Zhang Yidong in the securities industry for 15 years. The moderate speech, manners elegance, written reports glossary of analyst "Veterans" to "retire", will undoubtedly lead to market speculation.
In recent days, surging news exclusive interview with Zhang Yidong, its surging news Readme back seat of "truth", as well as reflections on strategy over the years.
Like to study, but tired of "Oscar" award is generally
Zhang Yidong said that since 2001, do the work, 15 years down the line, still like doing now, because the investment is "life like", just "fixed the seller." But he has repeatedly said, and will continue to do research, and let the couple go to the Exchange and communication with the buyer.
Surging News: see the article write you "do not move" in the media?
Zhang Yidong: didn't look at it, I don't know who called, some of my friends call me some time ago, cudgel, asked if I wanted to fight back, and I don't see any significance, they said let him go.
Surging News: at that time (in transition) is saying?
Zhang Yidong: at that time in their own micro-focus on recommended new group said in statement, his modesty, of course, like everyone, and will continue to do research, role for the leader to continue to help industrial policy team. This segment was later taken out of context.
Surging News: think of this story?
Zhang Yidong: very calm, people write you could mean people think you're a man. My concern has been done over the years, was approved, but that already belong to the dusty past. As for the back, like why am I interested in policy, because looking at the future, what to do in the future, is what's important. Also, never mind how others to understand you, they tend to be from the point of speculation, so it will not because others interfered with her life.
Surging News: research on why all of a sudden quit the seller?
Zhang Yidong: it's not sudden. Let me start at the beginning of last year's Assistant Wu Fenglai (responsible), but the deed, he is unwilling to take over and advised me to look for a more appropriate person. To tell the truth, xingye Securities Institute of the platform we built, has very deep feelings, so I have been looking for uplifting, with potential successors.
Surging News: is it true that you do not move?
Zhang Yidong: seller is very hard to study, only keeping love can insist on the best. You look at me in 2001 to join, compared with my batch of seller strategy, I already stand to the Veterans of the last gang, and indeed, the seller of a stock market strategy of much-needed energy, customers will be asked to work closely to short-term market changes track and, I hope, to seize every opportunity. Plus, my research methodology is more biased towards the game, much like actual combat, they require continuous analysis and deduction of various factors in the short term marginal changes, not only to be pegged to the country but also the overseas, saving energy is even greater.
Surging News: very hard indeed.
Zhang Yidong: sell-side analysts sometimes elbow grease may be as important as credit. Because even if the research is successful, but if there cannot be effectively delivered to institutional clients, has been unable to obtain the appropriate return. Especially when the market is when there is no chance, has a greater need for elbow grease, in addition to the normal research, nonstop travel, road shows, communication, research, and networking with clients and so on, in order to acquire new wealth rankings and commissions.
In this position, under the rules of the game, started to realize that the energy is not enough, have to sacrifice family, eventually I lost my love of seller strategy. So, I told the company to apply for restructuring.
Surging News: what kind of rules of the game?
Zhang Yidong seller research award every year, especially the "new wealth" award like an Oscar every year to "carry out a walk", King defeated bandits. In order to compete for places, not just doing research, usually have to pay a variety of elbow grease, try to "sell", and to connect with others, is on top of every year in early August to the end of October to continue canvassing activities, constant travel. It made me more and more fed up with, and I want to know what I like and don't like.
Surging News: you like to study.
Zhang Yidong: Yes, research strategies, practical research itself is fun, and can be verified, but also valuable.
Surge: "new wealth" award?
Zhang Yidong: used to be dreams and surprises, the situation improved, so to my career peak. But, dang I from 2009 yihou, has been in new wealth strategy Qian three name, and Qian four name, which has three years took has first name, and includes had other of similar selection "crystal ball", and "Taurus Award", and "first financial", and insurance funding tube IAMAC Award "of first name, gradually of, I for annual of selection increasingly tired, except first name yiwai, other of ranking are no any meaning, and first name also just a repeat just, is to pay more energy.
Surging News: Although the first, but it will have lots of energy a year is it?
Zhang Yidong: Yes. On one hand, fund managers to vote changes, the past few years a lot of fund managers I know friends are private. On the other hand, I now no longer need to use the new wealth rankings to prove what, however, is the seller's policy team leader positions, to companies and to the brothers, is forced to play the game each year, must invest energy, time to do that I've been playing many times and knows how to play, but don't want to play the game.
"Retired from the star to become a coach can keep the team fighting"
Zhang Yidong has repeatedly stressed in the interview, he built up, and "brothers" played together for so many years with Societe Generale Securities Research Institute has very deep feelings, even if there is no equity, but also as home care. Zhang Yidong pick a favorite team, gave the reporter a metaphor for the Los Angeles Lakers said Bryant should have retired. "If you always think ' get the old men, and whether it will rice ', slow reconstruction of the whole team up, might as well be correct with yourself, and make the whole team better. "
In the view of Zhang Yidong, it is also their recruitment to "brothers". "If a sheep led by a lion, the lion all become sheep. If the boss has no power, no way, banned or not to rush, and will give the other brothers also had to delay. "
Surging News: retire to do what?
Zhang Yidong: don't forget the beginner's mind, always. I know that I really like and have the ability to do research of investment strategies. As for the future, I believe God will lead. But at this stage, as Deputy Managing Director of the Institute and the cornerstone of the Institute, I will try my best to enhance the effectiveness of various research and institutional client services, in particular, continue to help industrial policy team. Wang Delun them more energy, daily a variety of research services, road shows and other activities will be better than when I was leading and I retire, there is more time to learn and think, can on the other hand, help them. Although, I personally withdrew from the spotlight, but for the help of my team is the best, every successful team needs to have a spirit of self-revolution, sometimes like a broken arm to survive.
Surging News: well said seriously.
Zhang Yidong: really so, examples I have been wary of Nokia, Nokia fell suddenly from the peak of the top down and depressed? Mother of success and sometimes failure, must fear markets, must be proactive, self-renewal. Like the seller actually, if we know that the rules of the game, and managed to do it, rather than take a step backward, more eager to leave the stage to a more energetic successor, and I retired from the star, plays a coach or team manager role, but could make the team maintained a strong fighting force.
Surging News: hesitating before?
Zhang Yidong: the thing in the beginning I had a tangled, once tangled did continue to rush a few years, after all the effort is good, also ask yourself, leave the familiar spot, focus point, will not feel lost? But then I think, in fact, life just to find what you really think is worth doing on the line.
Surging News: this is how to think?
Zhang Yidong: after a certain period of time to pray, so that I can confidently face, no longer worry about tomorrow. Since doing this thing for ourselves and the team, the company is a right thing to do, and sooner or later what he should, it might as well have done earlier. Starting early, himself a transformation, for the team back to life the power of early. Frankly, while some stars just brokerages, a researcher at the Institute as a platform is constantly hopping about on different platforms, but, I'm still my career as the industrial Institute, after all, the platform that I personally involved in building, lost youth, gold in it for ten years, emotional value.
The other hand, made such a decision, and my faith. For the Christian, to make the team better and put down my pride is not difficult. In addition, Christian values but also stresses the importance of the family, a few years ago my family owed for work, now the transformation of work and family.
"Too many places don't go"
In fact, Zhang Yidong, this was a long "gestation" out of the field. Last April, a stock "soared", when Zhang Yidong was intended to "left switch", not doing that seller's policy work. Who knows, come back take a long vacation, with a sense of self-awareness that he will never go.
In an interview, Zhang Yidong recalled, said, "God's will". He said that in retrospect, whether private equity, or they, in fact, are not ready.
Surging News: last year, rumor has it, leaving you to do private placements.
Zhang Yidong: almost, sometimes life is wonderful. April 2015, I've made up my mind to be changed and just haven't decided whether private or internal restructuring. When the stock market was still not so crazy, plus the Industrial Decade didn't take off, I want to since it is a bull market, are in no hurry to break in, went out to take two months leave.
Surging News: why do you want to leave?
Zhang Yidong: just want to transition, want to do things you don't like. No direct separation of private, because families with money, I preferred family, which is one aim of the transformation, so to go on holiday with family, rather than a rush to make money, money will never be made up. Was going to back a final decision in late June whether private, the results came back in late June, a sense that the market is wrong, and so chose to stay.
Surging News: stay continue to report a sense of it?
Zhang Yidong: really is, in addition, back in the country found that many researchers, awareness of the Fund managers are away on private-equity firms, Societe Generale has several best analysts rushed to settle in new wealth, Institute people are longing for change, that's when I go it is more a State of panic.
Surging News: so no go?
Zhang Yidong: I was in the spirit of common sense, think private heat and have problems. Many people where not to go.
Surging News: you now go back to the past, there was no choice to private, is the right choice?
Zhang Yidong: it is God's will. Never let me go, I'm here to stay. Go back and look at, whether it's private equity industry, and is my own, might not be ready. Private industry is also in a period of aggressive growth, and many of the rules of the game are not conducive to wealth management.
Surging News: wild growth time period is also one of the best?
Zhang Yidong: years ahead is wild growth, but now began to pay for savage, the next stage is the big wave in Sentosa. Next, the wealth management industry is still very promising.
Analyst: interest, curiosity and an open mind
In addition to thinking about "stepped back" what can I do after, Zhang Yidong select "successors" are no less effort.
Zhang Yidong said with a smile, Societe Generale securities research all his career, ten years of my life.
Perhaps because the feelings, perhaps because the responsibility, Zhang Yidong looking for an uplifting, thoughtful, high face values, the knowledge structure of all "potential" to succeed himself.
Surging News: were you selected Wang Delun?
Zhang Yidong: meet my conditions: young, energetic, idea, knowledge is also very complete.
Surging News: handsome.
Zhang Yidong: haha, is handsome, humble, warm man, the key is to have a thirst for seller strategies of love. I receive a lot of resumes and interviewed a lot of people, and finally found the explosive "high-flyers".
Surging News: analysts do all these years, do you think a successful sell-side analysts in which areas should be accumulated, or hard?
Zhang Yidong: first of all, do you want to have a strong interest in, and always maintain the enthusiasm, passion and genuinely enjoy doing research investments, liked the patterns behind k-line and like to study human nature and likes to share his views with others.
Second, there is a curiosity that objective is important, do not be fooled by the market sentiment. In many cases, short-term market performance is a kind of humanity exposed, it will be radical, not rational. For example, last year after the July crash of rising (June 12, 2015 until July 8, the Shanghai composite index fell to 3,421 points from highest 5,178. From July 9 to July 23, the Shanghai composite index again rose to 4,123), many people add lever stock, think the bull market is back, in fact, the short-term sentiment is wrong. For example, continuous fuse, and after the collapse in January of this year, some people think the there will be no bull market for many years now, and this is only a short-term sentiment. Curiosity of the objective is for all kinds of variables, especially new changes to be curious, but the important thing is to objectively rational analysis, not conformity, to judge for himself.
The third is with an open mind to new things. Such as now and a lot of new consumption patterns, business models, traditional price/earnings ratio, net rates valuation system is difficult to accurately measure its value, need to be open to learning to understand to understand. Understand the future, to make things simple, summed up in the law to guide investment research. For example, the so-called new model of what? Is the beneficiary of economic restructuring? Also is a scientific breakthrough? Or just make up a story and attracting money through capital operation on stocks?
Said the three points, need perseverance, in time, will have some success.
Surging News: you usually spend time in learning about how long?
Zhang Yidong: investment strategy is to continually learn new things and new knowledge, so research is in fact learning, usually in the morning and evening study. This years spent much time travel, exchanges, will affect their learning time.
Surging News: daily reading?
Zhang Yidong: Yes, reading helps us stand on the shoulders of giants.
Surging News: like what?
Zhang Yidong: a lot of very complex. Books on books on faith and finance, psychology books. Some other social science books, classical books in China.
Excessive wealth and valued reputation but haste makes waste
In the course of the interview, Zhang Yidong is smiling, talking slowly, and seems to be talking with someone else. In fact, Aries, he claims to be is young "impulse". Christianity made him a disciplined person, from an "impulsive Aries" into a calm and gentle temperament.
Surging News: it seems that Christian mentality of peace?
Zhang Yidong: Yes, whether it is good or bad, there is the grace of God. A lot of people too much ego, self-centered, either arrogance or sorrow inferiority, but Christians will see life from an eternal perspective, "was to save sinners" gratitude attitude to life, and your mind will become peaceful.
Surging News: you used to be the impulse of people? Liu Shiyu registration no solo fingering supporting
Zhang Yidong: may, especially College easy emotional power.
Surging News: How do you retire to decide?
Zhang Yidong: conscience, to do the right thing, people do for beautiful things to pay attention to. Don't have to worry about their own future, and don't care about other people's opinion of you. I now have more time to learn, to continue to improve the capacity, every day feel like I lived a very full and have been very happy. Some friends worry about me, don't do the sellers strategy, new wealth is not participating, may be marginalized. And I believe, if God gives me a window will give more appropriate I opened my door.
Surging News: as an analyst, the pursuit of Fame Fortune and go is right for you?
Zhang Yidong: those are the byproduct of success, we are pursuing the right thing, perseverance, will succeed in the end, after which those additional things will come. However, you cannot put the cart before, excessive emphasis on wealth but worry about the reputation and eventually but haste makes waste.
"Most want to tear the report of the flood"
From undergraduate to masters, Zhang Yidong is "root seedlings of red" "Fudan people", and all the way in the international financial system. Public information, Zhang Yidong is a master of international financial Department of Fudan University class of 1999. Since 2001 since 15, written reports, Zhang Yidong himself is not clear. Although interest in the research strategy with full of love and, in his own opinion, "come up" report, a hand count them.
Surging News: did come out to do policy research after graduation?
Zhang Yidong: in fact, when there is no graduation, doing policy research.
Surging News: why did you want to do this?
Zhang Yidong: stock market investments, capital markets research, very interesting, both science and art, can be seen as involving a variety of comprehensive subject knowledge, but it is not science, as one of the most important research is the study of human nature.
Surging News: what?
Zhang Yidong: material world for nature study, more seriously. However, the social sciences, "people" factors have important social activities of "reflexivity" effects often are expected to be self-reinforcing, self-realization, and expected is changeable. Stock market strategies, is the study of prediction and corresponding measures for the future.
However, in the face of future stones or the elephant, will encounter a variety of variables, these variables became a stage of market situation. For example, sometimes focusing on economic policies, especially monetary policy sometimes focus on business cycles, economic growth, some funds may be stock market when supply and demand, and sometimes just the market's own rules changes, such as the beginning of the circuit breakers.
The more long-term market trends, and economic fundamentals; the more short-term market, and the stock market policy, capital, and investor behavior. Investment strategy in China's greater emphasis on game, hard to change for a long time because a stock market "emerging transition +" system, dividend culture is weak, delisting system is not perfect, and also makes the value soil barren, a-share markets are particularly strong.
The rational individual investors are often driven by herd, it is easy to squeeze into the irrational. For so many years, mass panic and greed continued to perform, particularly in an era of the Internet, expected to form more quickly, more often.
I like to research the stock market because I fear humanity, fear of the market and wondered about the future.
Surging News: just wanted to through research, to know capital markets what changes may occur in the future?
Zhang Yidong: Yes, regardless of the economic, human nature or even, in fact, is to study the future of the world; and that configuration of resource allocation, wealth through capital market and can contribute on the side of the people or society, these two ideas.
Study on the investment strategy under the influence of various factors, and future trends, this is very interesting, very attractive, to satisfy people's curiosity. And just like chess, play the game, each time validation and logic will soon be verified, after validation, you know where to, what is wrong.
Surging News: special achievement?
Zhang Yidong: for each correct judgment was market-tested, is a reward in itself, but also to asset allocation of customers or friends help.
Surging News: in the past so many years, you wrote a total of how many reports, is it?
Zhang Yidong: many, not to mention, also wrote many reports prior to 2006, but have not saved. However, the report of my career truly memorable, or burn in the market report was four or five articles.
Surging News: which four or five articles?
Zhang Yidong: first was introduced by the middle of 2006 the rising power of peace, popular expectations of the bull market (Note: July 12, 2006), at that time still more pessimistic. But my judgment at that time, China has been rising, asset securitization rate will increase, both the stock and property markets, should go bullish.
The second was in November 2008 when the financial crisis, a share in 1800多, our distinctive read more to Obama's autobiography the title as the header of the audacity of hope (Note: on November 20, 2008). The logic is simple, though not the end of the world, but the market mood has been reflected in the end of the world emotions, the stock is cheap enough, behind the potential rate of return would be high, especially China's balance sheet is still good, behind strong intervention from the Government.
March 2011 I wrote the third of the Dunkirk retreat (Note: March 18, 2011), and this report makes me won the best new wealth strategist for first place for the first time. Then many people think highly of economic cycle starts, but, we wonder what what the new cycle starts, that is, "4 trillion" investment inertia, and rapidly rising inflation, and quickly raise funds from low prices, which will lead to profitability and valuation of the double play, is very dangerous systemic risks.
Fourth chapter is written by us early in the third quarter of 2011, reports of the snail shell Dojo (Note: on July 1, 2011). Our judgment at that time, the next two or three years were economic half dead, inflation half dead, lifeless, a lethargic stock market liquidity, the market index in case shocks, draining, toss and structural market constantly. Later in 2012, 2013, 2014, sure enough, generally of a State in the first half.
Fifth is the 2013 medium-term strategy of the bored seek novelty in (Note: June 21, 2013), mainly emphasis on economies in transition context, see gem as a representative of structural market. Gem at around 1000, many investment chiefs believe that the gem was a bubble, I still judge the gem in the bottom area, 1000 points just at the bottom of the high, continued to look more intensely the gem.
There are also able to short reflect my actual style of reporting, also repeatedly raised the market's attention, such as 2014 into the dabie mountains, last year's "Love In Autumn" (Note: on August 23, 2015 save strength, love in the fall and after a series of reports).
Surging News: write reports all these years have special difficulties he might run into it?
Zhang Yidong: the worst or most wanted to tear is the series of reports of the flood. Although we in last year June early medium-term strategy recharge proposed "will appeared big Spire, and has quarter sex even annual sex adjustment", but, dang last year July unit disaster occurred Shi, I put as Patriot "for country share" of feelings and as analyst of objective position confusion has, to led to flood of series report became more perceptual, and more subjective, and overestimated has policy of hand of effect.
Back at that period of time, if not like chicken but, as usual, when it comes to future market trends, investors when there is a huge difference, you should be able to give a more rational and objective judgement. The hard lesson and for industrial policy team and my future career will be continued on the alarm bells ringing.
"A-shares do not expect huge profits, no loss is made"
Perhaps, Zhang Yidong, 2015 "share battle" during the events that made him more tired for a stock seller policy work. Zhang Yidong admits that, in addition to those reasons mentioned above, the back seat there are two reasons: first, the a-share market to return to a bull market still needs time, the medium-term is not so optimistic; the second is the strategy of expanding into overseas markets, at least in overseas markets can be "relentlessly bearish", without worrying about malicious shorting risk.
"I was bearish in early United States judge stocks other than with oil-related stocks, most stocks are very expensive, and can suffer from a Davis double plays. Sure enough, during the Spring Festival, United States has prompted a major stock indexes plunge. "Zhang Yidong said.
Surging News: early but he said the United States is totally wrong, said bargain-hunting stock.
Zhang Yidong: Buffett actually overlook the general trend is not his strength, but Buffett's value investing from the bottom up, is worthy of God, for instance, he bought a lot of oil and gas stocks the past few months, many of them oil industry chain downstream integration, low rebound of crude oil in the near future, he heavily invested in oil and gas stocks also continued to rise.
US stock market this year is hard to make money, if not a bear market, it is difficult to avoid the risk of higher volatility. The most important variable is the Federal Reserve's interest rate process. Taken into account in February after a round after the crash, the Fed raised interest rates become markedly more dovish, continue to delay raising interest rates, which helps repair the risk appetite of global investors, to help reduce the systemic risk of stocks. Slow down the pace of rate hikes, will help reduce the strong dollar the United States recovery in manufacturing and the impact of the large multinational interests. However, taking into account the State of the global economic downturn and the global financial instability, 2016 remains difficult to come out of the stock market bull market volatility is very high, yields will not be high, only for structural opportunities. Pattern of high volatility and low profits hard, especially late in the second quarter, need special care.
Surging News: opinion about a stock?
Zhang Yidong: to adapt to the a-share market investments in plain fun, don't expect a windfall. Current a-share at the end of a long media stage, on the one hand, more trading opportunities, to know how to harvest on the other, can be based on long-term, looking for the core assets. In particular, grasp the stage when others panic after venting layout carefully, know how to harvest when the market sentiment.
Surging News: now in Hong Kong is more valuable for investment?
Zhang Yidong: long view, I agree, some laws of the Hong Kong stock market, after all, is relatively easy to use, is the dividend yield and valuation. When Hong Kong stock dividend yields higher to 5% per cent, 6% per cent of the time, rate is probably at the bottom, and when its dividend yield as low as 2% when the rate is probably at the top. Hang Seng index was 4.5%, the hscei index is now 5%, which means that Hong Kong stocks to the bottom area for a long time, if the bargain buy-and-hold for two or three years, risk-benefit ratio is very good. But if you expect profits to leave in one year, six months, Hong Kong may not be appropriate for, and Hong Kong stocks continue to repeatedly at the bottom cannot be ruled out, "grinding", or even another record low, so are not suitable for short-term speculation.
Surging News: shares now can't seem to find a better or safer investment targets?
Zhang Yidong: value is very good, especially this year, no loss was made.
Human well-being is out, if expected to reduce yields, then inflation is attractive, you can properly configure some of the gold, the International Monetary Fund.
If willing to bear more risk, from attack type of opportunities, more in "people less of place" Amoy gold rush, featured risk returns match degrees high of opportunities, especially no is strong assessment pressure of long-term investors, can gradually around quality interests assets (Fund, and stock) for regularly set voted, according to China population structure changes of trend to find opportunities, like in livelihood consumption, and modern services, and technology, and manufacturing upgrade, field found best of company, relies on these core assets through regularly set voted, and long-term investment beat market.
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