Asset markets, can only rely on the same assets to maintain the replacement. Liu zhe surge information
Shanghai real estate deal at the weekend, out of the blue to create a one-day transaction volume, expected to set off a rush of all media. It is said that more will follow.
"Headline" have been ordered
China's real estate market has lost and lonely, headlines and no one can. Just seemed to stop for a while in the previous year, cry cry as she clapped, still getting du nu sink treasure chest pose a great qiaoshanzhenhu. Until the beginning of this year gave some colour, is in full swing and make out dyeing, colorful entertainment, rough, strong, "never will come", "rise" the pronouncements versus.
Policy's intent was to inventory and other important policy reform helped a little sunshine, never expected people to take this light, ready to pry away the Earth. This God will leave you shut your door or a window policies trickle of chicken soup met to open a window might as well have blown off the roof Valley commercial greed, even chicken bones are obviously not enough teeth.
Therefore, Shanghai, known as "the most stringent real estate deal." Shortly thereafter, another booming city Shenzhen is not far behind, late-release deal.
Demonstrates not only the strict implementation of the housing restriction policies of the new deal, but also be strictly restricted to lending policies, for enterprises, intermediary hanging sheep heads to sell dog meat and other attempts to drill to tighten supervision and loopholes behavior.
State Department voices supporting prices must stabilize the overall situation.
Strict, limit.
Is the meaning of the new deal. Reveals a mean every word, without exception.
China's experience not fulfilled the world experience
"In the history of the most restrictive" control is not new. Restriction of Crown have this just came out. Seems to confirm the "no, only tougher."
With the purchase of the initial or prior to the purchase of all claims intended to squeeze the foam lowers real estate prices "most restrictive" policy difference is that the market reaction.
China's property market experienced more than a decade of sweeping, but it is not totally singing all the way. Around 2004 that the arguments raised there a bubble in China's housing market, and that home prices are about to peak. Of course, they did not expect in 2009. In 2010, said foam was raised again, that home prices are about to peak or has already peaked. Of course, they did not expect the year 2016.
Mouth fight of the year was extremely hot, from a variety of economic theory to the crisis have been turned over. What real estate market capitalization/GDP ratio, ratio of price to income, real estate sales and rental price ratio, and so on, and several rounds of crisis the United States experience, a crisis did not turn over the Japan experience, and so on, now is probably the time to lay the basis of the economics of mass, solid, still been words talking about retirement.
But experience is not very experienced on the Chinese economy were not fulfilled.
The "bubble" commentators have not only broken, over and over again "the most restrictive regulation" indomitable watching the prices are to rise even further, this group of people was exiled deep loess of the desert.
Not respecting the market's market
One of the most interesting is that another group of people, that is not afraid of wind and rain does not fear most is not most people who always exaggerates the real estate prices will soar.
Was the creature of man!
Most of them are exposure to real estate is quite deep, sing more than instinct and duty. But I do not know how, singing singing voice more and more bright, professional classes himself as a golden voice. Not only for the economic situation in addition to unique features no other comments, attempt to guides, create and grasp public opinion, and even to all the political, economic, financial and social fields starting pointing.
Many of them are State-owned origin of capital accumulation, even today still rely on State-owned enterprise and maximize capital and maintain their own business interests. But somehow, strongly criticized the State-owned capital himself spokesman for neo-liberalism, their sheltered himself in the State capital even after the public found out that directly threatened I was naked.
Every regulation, prices rose again, they jumped out and said, look, this is the market! This is the choice! As if this was heaven.
Wait until home prices stop rising, they jumped out, said the Government should strive to help real estate! Originally they thought, they are heaven.
Schizophrenia does not matter. Importantly this will result in societies torn?
Too many people don't want to think too much
This regulation, whatever is the most strict, the response is very different.
The so-called "big brothers" were not as vocal as it once again puffed up.
And the public, is not as usual, still use of painstakingly collected from the vast expanse of the Internet economic theories and knowledge to arm themselves, also in the selected edges line up decided to support multiple or empty, in thinking the so-called opinion leaders was deafening.
The "new deal" eve of the Shanghai market staged "flat crazy" House turnover exceeded 1700 on the day, it is said that afternoon, the network signed a surge, leading to system crashes and had to check the network to extend the deadline from nine o'clock to 12 o'clock in the morning.
Calculation, expected ... ... Too late to do anything they do not intend to do, them crazy but inner calm, because the goals are clear and the only, they just want to rob the House.
Are there no others?
Of course.
Since March this year, Shanghai daily average trading of 533, compared to 170 for the same period last year. Shanghai 2.4% new house prices rose last month, up 20.6% from a year, second-hand rose 5.3% per cent, up 20.3%.
Calculation, expected ... ... They were too late to do anything is not going to do any more, their spirit of enthusiasm but an inner calm, because the goals are clear and the only, don't think about it, can't afford to buy anyway.
Numbness of fanaticism, and mania torpor.
Today, no one dares, energy, thought, China's property market, making any expectations.
Market trends are the most real
Even though we all think that China's real estate market is not clear, perhaps because too many factors. Many people also asserted China's real estate market is not acted in accordance with the laws of the market.
These problems probably can't debate today, may be left to history.
However, the small movements of the market always wanted proved. Because of its small, might be more reliable.
The restriction object of the new deal, one of the loans.
Generally speaking, personal loans are loans relatively better quality, the risk of default is very low.
This refers to the normal due process of mortgage.
When the market regulatory loopholes, many de facto violation even of high risk real estate loans emerged.
In China this "subprime" mortgages, there are two main types, one is the down-payment loans and its variants. Another is the "bridging loan".
Down payment loan is easy to understand that there is no money, either have no money, no savings, money or no money flowing.
"Bridging loan" is what? Is the one you want to buy a new House and no ability to directly purchase, but a replacement is required, their residential houses sold and bought a new House. Because there will be a time lag in money didn't get in front of, behind to keep up, even a penny dead hero, there was a ravine, both can see, is to pass. So the intermediary to provide such services for short-term "轉手" gap caused by short-term loans, as if you take a bridge, thoroughfare.
How we change model to buy?
Loans are often able to explain industrial secrets.
Real estate as a costly consumption of durable consumer goods, expensive it is normal.
However, the more expensive a lot, too? Wang Dan do not welcome private enterprises when
Take a look at purchasing power.
Began, people have enough purchasing power to buy a House. This time, apparently in a State with no leverage. However, it is also displayed on the utilization of funds in the market as a whole is not too high.
Next, house prices rise, people have to take the form of loans. This extension of the repayment period, debt longer. But is still up to the individual to a certain accumulated down payment done. Simply put, a person working a number of years, has saved enough down payment and monthly payments, early access to housing. Which is very nice.
House prices continue to rise and loans are of course essential. But an accumulation of individuals working on their own, have been unable to complete the down payment. Fortunately, in a country where family and very close family relationship and the older generation is extremely diligent thrift environment, there have been, one or two two or even three generations down payment of common wealth.
House prices to rise. Family and family wealth accumulation cannot cover such expenditure. The income sources, and quantities are limited. How should we do? There are assets! Since my own House also followed up a 10 times, then sold it, for asset replacement.
This is why the down payment loans and bridge loans become regulated enemy of reason, as they became mainstream, but they are becoming mainstream, because the current real estate purchase of major changes in the way.
What service you have what kind of demand there.
What does this new model of property purchase description?
How can a person, only the intake and expenditure to stay healthy, if much smaller than when his intake, mainly due to the intake capacity is always limited, while consumption rises too far too fast, and what will happen to him? Is definitely burn fat, like their accumulation. And might be using muscles, like the accumulation of family. Next draws about guts. So, this time, various supplements, natural hormones, and put forward, on the final leg of his power.
Look at the two sets of data.
A set of data are CICC. Hong Kong is considered to be a housing bubble top, house price-income ratio is 15.6, Beijing's housing price-income ratio was 44.4, 42.3 per cent in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 33.7. Meanwhile, in New York the price-income ratio of 10, London, 12, Tokyo is 8.
Another group of Shanghai real estate data. In 2015, Shanghai's second-hand House transaction number is 317995, homes sold 100988 sets. Concept of second-hand House transaction is almost top and is 3.15 times times the homes sold units. In fact, since the February 2016 sold after hot in March, will be an abundant supply. The second week of a three-month Shanghai 8830 suites were added, but only 500 suites off the shelves this week, without a commensurate growth in trading volume.
Is evidenced by the strong evidence of the loan with a State of the real estate market.
Wealth creation is no longer enough to withstand asset appreciation, and more and more far from.
So, this kind of asset appreciation, and cannot be called a bubble?
Asset markets, can only rely on the same assets to maintain the replacement.
So, the asset markets, cannot be said of a bubble?
New deal still needs to be
Introduction of the new deal, most diverse reactions, is not as many as the previous opposition. This is because, the general consensus has evolved in the long years.
House prices rise or fall? This is not the primary goal of the new deal. The primary objectives of the policy, is to maintain economic stability, to avoid systemic financial instability and even crises.
Down payment loans and its variants are very dangerous, of course, obvious risk is extremely high, buyers would have probably cut off, but might expect housing appreciation in value, intermediaries have a financial qualification is not particularly clear, loans are often illegal, is walking from bank loans are consumer finance channel, if house prices fall, cut off almost a foregone conclusion. If this quite a lot, of course, it will cause a financial threat of systemic risk.
Bridging loan based on the preset is also built on rising property prices. If reversed, is bound to have a lot of defaults, disputes, etc.
Such as the United States subprime crisis, root because on zero down payment and lack of assets, loans issued on the basis of the credit assessment. Subprime mortgage crisis was the tragic, of course, is because on top of that there were many additional and complex products, for the press table.
New policy, timely and more accurate and gradation. However, for causing overheat of property more deep-seated problems, such as the imbalance in regional development, such as difficulties in the real economy, and so on, would need careful planning and patience to solve in the next policy, which can only be effective combination of short-term and long-term policy for economic health and lay a solid foundation for sustainable development.
PostScript
However, the key is that when the "wealth" and social creativity thus far, even runs a creativity and creative spirit, the so-called "wealth" is just a monetary phenomenon, the so-called "assets" just Dune.
When the so-called "liquidity" Carnival is the asset's own replacement, the drying up of the market just around the corner. Even if more water into the pool, more money flows, but poison + fish until.
Last week, friends crowding the screen by a song, he says,
Life than drifting along in front of, and poetry are far away.
Last week, the circle of friends is a group of photos crowding the screen, he said,
Life than poetry and distance, there is immediate manner.
Today, the housing market went round and round brush of our screens.
China's economy is at a critical period of reform and hope we can despise a trace drifting along, to poetry and the distance.
